What follows is a TON of links, screen caps, images, and quotes...and some comments and speculation from me. I'm not married to my theory/analyses. I'm just an autodidact who chomps on what interest me like a pit bull chomps a Kong ball. Counter analyses/opinion is welcome.
Setting the stage-
First, I believe Devolution is active, and if you also believe that, then you gotta ask "why are things so bad over there?"
Likewise, if you do NOT believe Devolution is active, then you gotta ask, "Why is the MSM not covering for Biden on this Afghan withdrawl thing?"
The common element between the two? The Media telling us that it's a disaster over there.
Today, Trump called it the “Tragic mess in Afghanistan...". That's fair. Afghanistan is a mess, a tragic one, and has been for many, many decades. It's a landlocked tribal country with one foot in the 14th century and the other in the 21st. ~95% Islamic, and not the same versions of Islam. There's about a dozen major and regional languages spoken there. It's got Iran to the West, Pakistan to the South and East, and the three other 'Stans to the North.
It's long been ruled by tribal warlords, strong men, honor culture. Imagine the complex cultures, languages, and diversity of the Native American Tribes in say... the 16th century. Now add technology from 1960 forward. Now add media. Now add islamo fascism. Now add CIA, ISI, and every other alphabet spy agency. Messy.
Not going to recap the Afghan War, but here's the invoice.
So, the US is withdrawing and has been withdrawing for some years. Lets go back to when that was fresh news, because at the time it was formulated, the headlines were kinda shocking.
'U.S. and Taliban Agree in Principle to Peace Framework, Envoy Says' The New York Times Jan. 28, 2019.
“The Taliban have committed, to our satisfaction, to do what is necessary that would prevent Afghanistan from ever becoming a platform for international terrorist groups or individuals.”
'Afghan conflict: Trump hails deal with Taliban to end 18-year war' 29 Feb 2020 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-51692546
'The president added that US troops had been killing terrorists in Afghanistan "by the thousands" and now it was "time for someone else to do that work and it will be the Taliban and it could be surrounding countries
"I really believe the Taliban wants to do something to show we're not all wasting time," he added. "If bad things happen, we'll go back with a force like no-one's ever seen."'
Interesting quote, eh?
Look where we were back then.
The Trump Admin worked out a deal with the Taliban, for THEM to fight the extremists.
But now, the media is telling us that the Taliban are back to being the bad guys and they are taking the country from what are insinuated to be the good guys as we leave.
The Guardian is likening it to the Fall of Saigon. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/aug/13/afghanistan-likened-to-fall-of-saigon-as-us-and-uk-send-troops-to-aid-evacuation
And check out these headlines:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-58195336
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/7/29/afghanistan-pariah-state-taliban-blinken-china
https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/evaluating-indias-options-in-afghanistan/article35549295.ece
https://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2021/08/13/afghanistan-taliban-kandahar-kabul/2601628853111/
https://www.nytimes.com/video/world/middleeast/100000007919465/afghanistan-taliban.html
https://www.msn.com/en-za/news/world/what-next-for-afghanistan-as-taliban-rise-again/ar-AANh01K
It's a full court press right now that Afghanistan is a massive failure, Taliban are back like it's 1999, it's mayhem, it's bedlam.
But...but I thought the Taliban is who we negotiated the withdraw with, and they were going to take over as we left? Like, that was plan. We leave, Taliban stays and makes sure the country isn't an islamofascists breeding ground.
Chew on it for a sec folks. Links and images inbound.
The Taliban. Offering forgiveness.
Whoa.
Media are presenting these like those scary hurricane maps. It's coming, the storm is coming, take cover!
But just... just 2 years ago it was the Taliban we worked a deal out with. Now, we are supposed to be freaking out that the deal is... happening.
Oh. OOOOOOOHHHHH! Now i get it.
IT's Trump's deal with the Taliban. Therefore, it's bad. Kill it with fire from the Media.
Let's take a step back, just a month, to this politico article.
"In May, the heads of three trade groups representing the government contracting industry sent a letter to Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, Secretary of State Antony Blinken and USAID Administrator Samantha Power, asking for clarity on where and how their members will continue their work for the Afghan military and government. None of the government officials have answered the letter...."
"It’s not clear what role the U.S. military will play in the coming months, but President Joe Biden has pledged to keep pumping money into the Afghan military, and the Pentagon suggested Thursday that it might still provide some intelligence and surveillance support.
"I think you can expect that we plan to use a range of [intelligence and surveillance] capabilities at our disposal,” ... “We also intend to leverage the strong relationship we have with the Afghan forces"
https://www.politico.com/news/2021/07/10/biden-afghanistan-air-force-499020
'Afghan Air Force Could Be Grounded After U.S. Pullout
The one advantage the Afghan army had on the Taliban looks set to slip away with the hasty U.S. withdrawal.'
https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/06/14/afghan-air-force-us-withdrawal-taliban/
That aircraft, is this:
'The AC-208 Eliminator Armed Caravan is an advanced reconnaissance and ground attack aircraft designed and developed by Orbital ATK. It was built based on the design of Orbital ATK’s AC-208 Combat Caravan light attack aircraft.'
https://www.airforce-technology.com/projects/ac-208-eliminator-armed-caravan-aircraft/
The USA has sold quite a bit of equipment to the Afghan govt for their air force.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Afghan_Air_Force_aircraft
And the Biden Admin, as detailed in the politico and foreign policy articles has bet on that air forces ability to repel the Taliban.
Let's pause and try to get a 30k ft view:
Trump makes deal w Taliban for them to take over when US withdraws.
But there is the Afghan govt already there, why not them?
Because they are all corrupt, ruthless warlords- that's why. The same types of warlords who made the country a terrorist haven before.
Who is Biden backing? The corrupt, ruthless warlords.
Well. Good thing he's not actually in charge. ;)
Do you see it? The withdrawal of US forces and support leaves the corrupt warlords without the support they need to fight off the Taliban... WHO WE MADE THE DEAL WITH!
The media wants you to forget the Trump deal, forget that the Afghan govt is corrupt and brutal, infiltrated by the Russians, Pakistanies and CCP.
We could spend ANOTHER 20yrs there and be no better off. So Trump made the best deal possible and this is that deal being realized
'US reportedly negotiating with Taliban to avoid embassy attack in Kabul'
https://nypost.com/2021/08/12/us-reportedly-negotiating-with-taliban-to-avoid-embassy-attack/
I could be wrong, but I believe Foreign Policy magazine is a globalist rag. That's always been my understanding. Check this article from July 28, 2021
'Stop Assuming the Taliban Will Win
With ethnic warlords reviving their militias, the Afghan war—even without the U.S. military—is more balanced than it seems.'
https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/07/28/afghanistan-taliban-stop-assuming-win/
This article does a fine job of framing the situation as the globalists, elite, etc see it.
Which is to say, NOT how Trump saw it and negotiated it to become.
https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/battle-for-afghanistan-taliban-strategy-rebecca-grant
Last article, form the indispensable JE Dyer who simply reports the facts.
Conclusion:
If Devolution is active (as I believe it is) then this is just Trump's deal with the Taliban coming to fruition. Doesnt make the Taliban the "good guys", it makes them the guys we did the deal with, against the corruptible warlords.
If Devolution is not active, then what happened to the deal we made?
And either way, the Media, Globalists, and Biden are backing the corruptible warlords against the Taliban who we made a deal with.
Just one more article.....
'The Taliban Think They Have Already Won, Peace Deal or Not'
“We have defeated the enemy.” The international community is scrambling to secure peace in Afghanistan, but the Taliban believe they have the upper hand — and are saying as much.
🙂
END
Addendum:
This is either the result of a hasty withdraw and our troops (and afghan govt retreating troops) left this stuff....
Or it’s a gifting of equipment to the Taliban... who Trump made a peace deal with.
Likely a bit of both, IMO.
Info/Perception War.
Here’s an experiment:
Imagine that Trump is President right now, publicly. He won 2020, the steal didn’t work.
Now go look at some mainstream media headlines, Twitter, etc.
WOULD THE MEDIA’S COVERAGE OF AFGHANISTAN BE ANY DIFFERENT?
POLL QUESTION:
Imagine that Trump is President right now, publicly. He won 2020, the steal didn’t work.
Now go look at some mainstream media headlines, Twitter, etc.
WOULD THE MEDIA’S COVERAGE OF AFGHANISTAN BE ANY DIFFERENT?
I used this site to monitor the recent Israel conflict and the Armenia/Azerbaijan conflict. Both had WAAAAY more action. More vids and pics of gun fights, explosions, damage, etc etc.
I don't want to minimize any injuries, deaths or destruction that is occurring. It's just REALLY bizarre to me that Trump made a deal with the Taliban and plans to withdraw. But now, the media is telling us that the Taliban are the bad guys again and the Afghan govt are the good guys.
[Y]ou know this, big strategy depends on planning and execution,”
“Looks like there is a bit of panic. I hope that they’ve got the right number of folks, that they can get them there quickly. I hope that we can protect Americans in the way that the Trump Administration had every intention of doing as we drew down"
...since we began those negotiations back in February of 2020, there wasn’t a single American killed by the Taliban. We had established a deterrence model.”
https://conservativebrief.com/trump-pompeo-reveal-48351/?utm_source=CB&utm_medium=RP78
US Mil does their best work in the dark.
Just sayin'.....
And if the troops are announced, they are already on the way or there. They don't announce AND THEN gather them up and send them.
Folks... if the Afghan Govt was US friendly, and the group we wanted to back and support, would they be welcomed into Iran?
HELL NO!!!
I know this is an unusual, even radical view, but what I see happening over there is the corrupt, Iran/Pakistan friendly Afghan Govt warlords and their troops fleeing to Iran and Pakistan, countries we are less than friendly with.
While the Taliban, the folks Trump set up a peace deal with, take over the country.
I see Trump's peace deal coming to be.
Check it... know what newspaper this is?
'Vatan-e Emrooz' (Homeland Today)
Do you know who owns this newspaper?
Mehrdad Bazrpash, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, and the Basij element of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
And whose side are they on? The Afghan Gov't.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mehrdad_Bazrpash
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mahmoud_Ahmadinejad
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basij
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sharif_University_of_Technology
Is "most notorious regional strongmen" just a politically correct way of saying "despotic warlords"?
This ties into this thread well. There's a couple articles in it that mention the Afghans needing US support to keep their equipment operable. That was withdrawn. That's a huge factor in the ease with which the Taliban have taken real estate.
I’ve continued to add to this thread. There was a server problem about halfway through it that broke the thread. I think that’s fixed now. May need to hit show more/newer.
I’m very confident in my theory, not married to it, but we’re engaged now. ; )
Read that phone call description.
h/t: @Playdo for the link
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2021/08/afghanistan-taliban-make-new-peace-offer-and-other-bits.html#
"Remember that Trump fired Ambassador John Bolton as national security advisor when Bolton openly rebelled against Trump’s decision to negotiate a peace agreement with the Taliban.
Trump’s deal set a firm withdrawal date for U.S. combat troops — May 1, 2021.
... As Trump recounted three weeks ago at the Turning Point USA ..., he bombed the Taliban to the negotiating table....
Since then, not a single U.S. soldier has died in combat in Afghanistan.
What a moment. Not even a week ago the Biden Admin said it would be 30-60 days before the Taliban would be near Kabul.
Going to keep adding what I think are the most important updates that contribute to my #Afghnistan theory thread.
If you haven't read it, you may want to. It's a slightly more positive analyses of the situation as opposed to the dooming and glooming and hand wringing that is abundant across the media and social sites.
Taliban spokesman: "There is no danger to foreign embassies and diplomatic missions in Kabul"
😺
Interesting, great catch!
@justhuman - The unraveling of what Biden was going to do with Afghanistan, that is.
@justhuman okay but wouldn't it be hilarious if Trump timed this to specifically make Democrats look bad? There would have likely been a fight during this transition no matter what. That being the case, why not let the "next administration" carry the optically ugly part? (Hm? Could it be COVID is also playing out in a similar manner? The fall out is coming no matter what, the important thing is not too be the one in power when that happens.)
I think he did just that, I really do. : )
Kyle... I love you, man.
@KeanuA @justhuman Ditto. This would be so much more upsetting without your perspective.
@justhuman Rubbing salt in the wound as Biden eats sh*t?
@justhuman how much legacy do they think that illegitimate moron has to tarnish?
Interesting. Almost as if Trunp is using the media optics to full advantage to further destroy Biden
@justhuman I know you know what you’re talking about and it’s truly fascinating
@justhuman amazing read , great thread . I have to say I'm impressed by all that work and fact after fact that really simplifies your theory. I'm confident your right .
One of my favorite journalist. Followed him since Iraq War.
I trust him and his reporting.
I'll be looking for any pics or vids that can confirm this is happening. So far, I have not seen very much brutality at all. I've scarcely come across any photos or videos of actual warfare and brutality. I've seen hundreds of reports that it's occurring, but almost every video I see is just people standing around or driving on a road.
@justhuman I had the thought that it may not even be true. Heck, I don't believe MOST of what I hear these days. But I believe you mentioned corruption in their government- the govt. obviously has not been effective in keeping Afghanistan together-I just thought this was interesting.
@justhuman
Trump "spoke" their language.
By killing their Leadership wholesale no matter how they tried to hide or bluff.
Barbarism will **always** prevail over the Civilized attempts to control them.
So you get them to CONTROL THEMSELVES out of self preservation.
Trump understood that.
This. Very much this.
@justhuman Oh my gosh! Unbelievable! More pile on? Raising more awareness/support for dissembling the "military industrial complex/deep state? For shrinking government? Prep for a coming(seemingly inevitable) conflict with China?!? Because of your thread, I see this situation SO differently!
You know, I read what Brian has been saying about Durham and I wonder if Trump didn't just set the deep state up to have to prosecute itself. And now this? And he's supposedly completely removed from the limelight now. Just bowed out for Biden to look like shit. I wonder what open conflict with China would look like. Maybe forcing the fight out into the open would unite Americans against a common enemy in a way nothing else can?
@justhuman what about the rainbow flag and the BLM flag? Did he salvage them too?
@justhuman I am now looking at all of the doom and gloom as politics and a way to pile on to the Biden "administration" and dems ALL of the negativity and failure so they can take it ALL with them when we kick their asses out! President Trump and the America First agenda rises like an oasis in the desert, pardon the pun, and helps us rebuild the future with unbridled optimism!😁
Thank you for the updates. What a time, what a time.
And what a brilliant move on President Trump's part to negotiate the deal and let Bidet take the fall for the wretched optics, if that's what the plan was the whole time.
Quite a thread you’ve compiled here, it’s a great read, and the complete opposite of everything I’ve heard so far. The fact that Canada and UK are taking the refugees seems like another sign that your theory is legit. I wonder if the Taliban will honor the agreement without Trump in the Oval Office. I’ve heard talk of China and Pakistan deals with the Taliban.
I went to bed thinking Kabul only had a few days.
I wake up, and it already fell!
@justhuman Jussie Trudeau just can't wait to bring tens of thousands of poorly-vetted "refugees" over to North America.
I'm sure we'll have plenty streaming through our southern border as well. Oh joy.
@justhuman
Bruh, bruuuuuuuuh! I was thinking it was all an interesting theory but at this point I'm a believer.
@lynnmedichi That cat needs to lay off the catnip! Just saying! 😜 @justhuman
@justhuman If this handover is as Trump planned, this statement would have to be more of a trolling statement at Biden than actual outrage correct?
Excellent thread on events in Afghanistan! Thank you!
Trump's timing has always been and remains impeccable.
😉
Biden’s entire existence threatens his legacy but no one deserves this little twist of fate more than him 😂 excellent thread. This is Wictor level stuff!
This is an incredible thread!
His legacy was messed up way before this.
AAAAHHHH HAHAHAHAH!!!!!
Okay, I am definitely correct. This confirms it.
Just go opposite of Kinzinger on every issue and you'll come up correct 99/100 times.
They, the DC establishment, MSM, ConInc, etc... CANNOT let this thing be a success in ANY way....
BECAUSE THIS IS THE TRUMP PEACE DEAL.
IT CANNOT BE ALLOWED TO BE A SUCCESS.